Here’s what to expect from the April jobs report on Friday

Hiring
likely
continued
at
a
brisk
pace
in
April
as
investors
look
for
any
cracks
in
the
labor
market
that
could
sway
the
Federal
Reserve.

Nonfarm
payrolls
are
expected
to
show
a
gain
of
240,000
for
the
month,
according
to
the
Dow
Jones
consensus
that
also
sees
the
unemployment
rate
holding
steady
at
3.8%.

If
that
top-line
number
is
accurate,
it
actually
would
reflect
a
small
step
back
from
the
average
276,000
jobs
a
month
created
so
far
in
2024.
In
addition,
such
growth
could
add
to
the

Fed’s
reluctance
to
lower
interest
rates,
with
the
labor
market
humming
along
and
inflation
still
above
the
central
bank’s
2%
target.

“There
are
definitely
still
tailwinds
left,”
said
Amy
Glaser,
senior
vice
president
of
business
operations
at
job
staffing
site
Adecco. “For
April,
the
name
of
the
game
is
steady-Eddie
as
resiliency
continues,
and
then
we’re
looking
forward
to
some
of
the
seasonal
trends
we
would
expect
going
into
the
summer.”

April’s
jobs
market
featured
more
strength
in
health
care
and
leisure
and
hospitality,
Glaser
added.
Those
have
been
two
of
the
major
sectors
for
employment
growth
this
year,
with

health
care
adding
about
240,000
jobs
so
far
and

leisure
and
hospitality
contributing
89,000
jobs.

However,
growth
in
the
coming
months
could
spread
to
areas
such
as
education,
manufacturing
and
warehousing,
part
of
the
usual
seasonal
trends
as
educators
look
for
alternative
employment
in
the
summer
and
students
head
out
seeking
jobs,
she
said.

“I
don’t
expect
to
see
major
surprises
this
month
based
on
what
I’m
seeing
on
the
ground,”
Glaser
said. “But
we’ve
been
surprised
before.”

Indeed,
the
labor
market
has
been
full
of
surprises
this
year,
topping
Wall
Street
estimates
at
a
time
when
many
economists
expected
hiring
to
have
slowed
down.
The

303,000
gain
in
March
shattered
forecasts
and
was
part
of
a
glut
of
data
showing
that
the
labor
economy
remains
strong,
wages
continue
to
rise
and

inflation
has
not
moved
much
after
receding
sharply
in
2023.

That
has
pushed
the
Fed
into
a
box
as
officials

are
reluctant
to
start
cutting
interest
rates
until
they
get
more
convincing
evidence
that
inflation
is
under
control.

Policymakers
will
be
watching
several
aspects
of
Friday’s
report
for
evidence
that
job
growth
is
not
helping
fuel
price
pressures.

If
the
payrolls
growth
misses
expectations
by
a
little
and
wage
pressures
diminish
while
more
people
enter
the
labor
force,
that
would
be
an
ideal
scenario
for
the
Fed,
said
Drew
Matus,
chief
market
strategist
at
MetLife
Investment
Management.

“The
Goldilocks
scenario
is
an
unemployment
rate
rise
with
a
participation
rate
rise,”
Matus
said. “What
that’s
suggesting
is
there’s
a
little
bit
of
weakness
that
should
translate
into
less
wage
pressure
and
take
some
of
the
concerns
about
sustained
sticky
high
levels
of
inflation
off
the
table.”

Markets
also
will
be
watching
the
wage
numbers
closely.

Consensus
estimates
put
average
hourly
earnings
growth
at
0.3%
on
the
month,
near
the
March
move,
and
the
yearly
increase
at
4%,
or
just
below
the
4.1%
the
month
before.
However,
Matus
said
the
wage
numbers
could
be
distorted
by
immigration
patterns
as
well
as
California’s
minimum
wage
increase
this
year
to
$16
an
hour.

Fed
Chair

Jerome
Powell
said
Wednesday
that
wage
pressures
have
eased
over
the
past
year
as
the
labor
market
has
moved
into
better
balance
between
supply
and
demand.

“Inflation
has
eased
substantially
over
the
past
year,
while
the
labor
market
has
remained
strong,
and
that’s
very
good
news,”
he
said
at
his
news
conference
after
the
central
bank’s
latest
meeting. “But
inflation
is
still
too
high.”

Markets
have
been
in
a
state
of
flux
as
uncertainty
over
the
Fed’s
rate
path
has
grown,
though
Wall
Street

rallied
Thursday
and
stock
market
futures
jumped
Friday,
ahead
of
the
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics
release
at
8:30
a.m.
ET.

“What
you’re
seeing
in
markets
reflects
the
uncertainty
around
the
path
forward.
What’s
going
to
be
more
important
to
the
Fed,
unemployment
or
inflation?”
Matus
said. “If
unemployment
starts
moving
higher,
is
the
Fed
going
to
care
as
much
about
inflation
as
they
do
today?
Or
vice
versa?
And
I
don’t
think
even
with
all
the
information
the
Fed’s
given
us,
that
we
know.
I
don’t
think
anyone
knows
and
I
think
that’s
why
you’re
seeing
the
market
behave
the
way
it
is.”