Something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately

Calling
the
state
of
the
U.S.
jobs
market
these
days
stable
seems
like
an
understatement
considering
the
latest
data
coming
out
of
the
Labor
Department.

That’s
because
most
of
the
past
several
weeks
have
shown
that
first-time
claims
for
unemployment
benefits
haven’t
fluctuated
at
all
—
as
in
zero.

For

five
of
the
past
six
weeks,
the
level
of
initial
jobless
filings
totaled
exactly
212,000.
Given
a
labor
force
that
is
168
million
strong,
achieving
such
stasis
seems
at
least
unusual
if
not
uncanny,
yet
that
is
what
the
figures
released
each
Thursday
morning
since
mid-March
have
shown.

The
consistency
has
raised
a
few
eyebrows
on
Wall
Street.
The
only
week
that
varied
was
March
30,
with
222,000.

“How
is
this
statistically
possible?
Five
of
the
last
six
weeks,
the
exact
same
number,”
market
veteran
Jim
Bianco,
head
of
Bianco
Research,
posted
Thursday
on
X.

“Initial
claims
for
unemployment
insurance
are
state
programs,
with
50
state
rules,
hundreds
of
offices,
and
50
websites
to
file.
Weather,
seasonality,
holidays,
and
economic
vibrations
drive
the
number
of
people
filing
claims
from
week
to
week,”
he
added. “Yet
this
measure
is
so
stable
that
it
does
not
vary
by
even
1,000
applications
a
week.”

Others
chimed
in
as
well.

“Numbers
made
up,”
one
participant
on
the
thread
opined,
while
another
said, “Someone’s
cooking
the
books.”

However,
others
offered
more
analytical
thoughts,
attributing
the
uniformity
in
data
to
seasonal
adjustments.
Tracey
Ryniec,
a
strategist
at
Zacks
Investment
Research,
suggested: “You
can
go
look
at
each
state
Jim.
Those
vary
greatly.”

Indeed,
a
Labor
Department
spokesperson
noted
that
while
the
string
of
212,000
prints
on
the
jobless
claims
data
is “uncommon,”
it
would
not
be
considered
anomalous.

The
streak “can
be
reasonably
interpreted
as
an
indication
that
there
has
been
very
little
volatility
in
initial
claims
over
this
period
relative
to
historical
patterns,
and
that
the
seasonal
adjustment
factors
are
effectively
removing
seasonality
from
the
aggregate
figures
reported
by
states,”
the
official
said.

Moreover,
claims

not
adjusted
seasonally
have
shown
substantial
fluctuation
during
the
five-week
period,
registering
readings
of
202,722;
191,772;
193,921;
197,349;
215,265
and
208,509.

Federal
Reserve
officials
watch
the
weekly
claims
numbers
as
part
of
their
broader
assessment
of
the
labor
market,
which
has
shown
surprising
resilience
as
the
central
bank
has
tightened
monetary
policy.

The
Labor
Department
official
also
pointed
out
that
new
seasonal
factors
to
the
claims
data
were
announced
a
month
ago.

“Using
the
new
seasonal
adjustment
factors,
initial
claims
have
been
at
a
fairly
consistent
level
since
around
mid-September
2023
and
even
more
so
since
the
start
of
February
2024,”
the
spokesperson
said.