‘We have woken up to a new paradigm in the Middle East’ following Iran-Israel escalation, analyst says

Iran’s
weekend
attack
on
Israel
marks
a “new
paradigm”
in
the
Middle
East
conflict,
which
risks
escalating
into
a
wider
regional
war,
Chatham
House’s
Middle
East
director
said
Monday.

Sanam
Vakil
at
the
London-based
think
tank
said
it
was
a
matter
of
when
and
not
if
Israel
would
respond
after
its
War
Cabinet
vowed
on
Sunday
to
“exact
a
price”
against
Tehran
for
its
overnight

aerial
assault
on
the
Jewish
state.

“The
Israeli
leadership
will
have
a
hard
time
not
responding.
They
may
not
do
it
immediately,
but
I
think
a
confrontation
between
Israel
and
Iran
—
which
might
be
priced
into
the
markets
—
is
certainly
coming,
it’s
just
a
question
of
when,”
Vakil
told
CNBC’s “Squawk
Box
Europe”
on
Monday.

Iran
launched more
than
300
drones
and
missiles against
military
targets
inside
Israel
on
Saturday
in
response
to
an
Israeli
strike
that
killed
top
Iranian
officials
in
Syria.

The
attack,
though
well
telegraphed
in
advance,
has
presented
some
opportunity
for
Israel
to
rehabilitate
its
image
following
its
monthslong
onslaught
in
Gaza,
which
many
perceive
as
disproportionate
to
Hamas’
Oct.
7
terror
attacks.

However,
an
Israeli
counteroffensive
risks
further
escalating
tensions
between
the
longtime
adversaries
from
a “shadow
war
into
a
very
direct
and
open
one,”
and
drawing
in
their
respective
allies,
Vakil
said.

“We
have
woken
up
to
a
new
paradigm
in
the
Middle
East.
The
warnings
of
a
regional
war
have
proven
to
come
true,”
Vakil
said
in
an
additional
research
note
emailed
to
CNBC.

“There’s
not
a
high
degree
of
confidence
that
Israel
could
strike
Iran
and
get
back
without
dragging
the
rest
of
the
region
into
this
broader
conflict,”
she
added.

United
Nations
Secretary-General
Antonio
Guterres
said
Sunday
the
Middle
East
was “on
the
brink”
and
urged
de-escalation
between
the
two
countries.

Vakil
noted
that
regional
players
were
now
relying
on
the
U.S.
and
Western
allies
to “impose
restraint”
on
Israel
to
prevent
a
wider
conflict.

U.S.
President

Joe
Biden
has
already
insisted
that
Washington
would
not
take
part
in
any
counteroffensive
against
Iran,
even
as
he
reiterated
support
for
Israel
and
convened
G7
leaders
to
agree
on
a
coordinated
response
to

Iran’s “brazen”
attack.

His
response
moving
forward
will
prove
especially
sensitive
as
it
could
play
a
deciding
role
in
November’s
U.S.
presidential
election.

“What
this
attack
on
Israel
has
done
is
bring
a
warmness
back
to
the
relationship
and
show
that
the
U.S.
has
still
got
Israel’s
back.
But
the
U.S.
does
not,
in
this
key
election
year,
want
to
get
dragged
into
something
bigger,”
Vakil
said.

“Iran
is
a
toxic
asset
for
Washington,
and
you
will
have
Republicans
perhaps
criticizing
President
Biden
for
not
being
tougher
on
Iran,
so
that
is
an
inflection
point
that
emerges
throughout
the
campaign,”
she
added.